The Race For World Cup Places: What Every Country Needs In Europe

 


With one round remaining in European World Cup qualifying, the race is hotting up for a place at Qatar 2022.

QUALIFIED: GermanyDenmark, BelgiumFrance

Scotland, Wales, Czech Republic and Austria are the nations guaranteed to be in the playoffs.

That leaves five automatic qualification spots still up for grabs for group winners, along with eight playoff places for the group runners-up.

Here's the state of play across all 10 groups.

GROUP A
Nov. 14: Luxembourg vs. Republic of Ireland, Portugal vs. Serbia

Portugal (17 points) drew level with Serbia (17 points) after being held to a 0-0 draw away to Republic of Ireland on Thursday. But it's the Portuguese who top the group on goal difference.

It means Cristiano Ronaldo's team only need to avoid defeat at home to Serbia on Sunday in the final group game to qualify for the World Cup.

Serbia must win in Lisbon or they will be the team consigned to the playoffs.

GROUP B
Nov. 14: Greece vs. Kosovo, Spain vs. Sweden

Disaster struck for Sweden (15 points) after they lost in Georgia on Thursday. Victory for Spain (16 points) in Greece later sent them top of the group.

It comes down to the meeting between the two in Seville on Sunday -- and now Spain only need to avoid defeat on home soil to win the group and go direct to the World Cup, leaving Sweden to the playoffs. It's simply a must-win game for Sweden.

GROUP C
Nov. 15: Northern Ireland vs. Italy, Switzerland vs. Bulgaria

Jorginho's late penalty miss in Italy's 1-1 home draw with Switzerland means this group is absolutely on a knife-edge, with the two teams on 15 points. Italy hold the ace card, as their goal difference is +11 to Switzerland's +9.

However, Italy have to go to Northern Ireland in their final match, while the Swiss host Bulgaria. The Swiss will need to either better Italy's result on the final day, or win by at least two goals more to draw level on goal difference.

If Italy and Switzerland finish level on points and goal difference (and goals scored), it goes down to head to head, and Switzerland would then qualify on head-to-head on away goals.

GROUP D

Nov. 16: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Ukraine, Finland vs. France

France (12 points) sealed their place at the World Cup with am 8-0 win over Kazakhstan on Saturday.

Finland (11 points) moved into second with victory over Bosnia, who are now eliminated, and must win at home to France on Nov. 16 to definitely secure the playoff place. They will be second regardless if Ukraine do not win in Bosnia.

Ukraine (9 points) now know they must win in Bosnia to make the playoffs, with Finland losing or drawing against France. If Finland draw and Ukraine win by one goal, goal difference would be level and it would come down to goals scored. If goals scored finishes level, Ukraine are second on head to head.

GROUP E
Nov. 16: Czech Republic vs. Estonia, Wales vs. Belgium

Belgium (19 points) qualified for the World Cup with their 3-1 win at home to Estonia.

Wales (14 points) are second ahead of Czech Republic (11 points), and both are assured of a playoff place via the UEFA Nations League if they finish third. However, Wales need at least a point at home to Belgium to finish second and have a chance of being seeded in the playoff draw.

For Czech Republic to finish second, they have to win at home to Estonia, and need Wales to lose and Belgium, meaning the two teams will finish level on points. The Czechs (+3) must then finish with better goal difference than Wales (+5). Wales win the head to head if records are identical.

GROUP F
Nov. 15: Austria vs. Moldova, Israel vs. Faroe Islands, Scotland vs. Denmark

Denmark have qualified and still have a 100% record, while Scotland will be in the playoffs.

Austria won't finish inside the top two, but are guaranteed of being unseeded in the playoffs as a UEFA Nations League group winner.

GROUP G
Nov. 16: Gibraltar vs. Latvia, Montenegro vs. Turkey, Netherlands vs. Norway

Vastly superior goal difference effectively means Netherlands (20 points) need a point at home to Norway to qualify for the World Cup, but they would miss out on the playoffs and finish third in the group if they lose and Turkey win.

Turkey are level with Norway on 18 points, but are second on goal difference (by one goal) following their 6-0 win over Gibraltar. Turkey know that a win away to Montenegro guarantees at least a playoff place. Turkey can still win the group if they win, and Norway beat Netherlands by the same or a lower margin. A draw is definitely enough for the playoffs if Norway lose.

If Norway win in the Netherlands, they get at least a playoff, and could win the group if Turkey fail to win or they win by a greater margin than Turkey. A draw is definitely enough for the playoffs if Turkey lose.

If Turkey and Norway finish with identical records (with both winning or losing), it's Turkey who win the head to head and win the group / finish second. If both draw, Turkey are second on goal difference.

GROUP H
Nov. 14: Croatia vs. Russia, Malta vs. Slovakia, Slovenia vs. Cyprus

A two-horse race between Russia (22 points) and Croatia (20 points).

It leaves a straight shootout in Split in Sunday when Croatia host Russia.

Croatia need to win to climb above their visitors and win the group.

GROUP I
Nov. 15: Albania vs. Andorra, Poland vs. Hungary, San Marino vs. England

England (23 points) have qualified in all but name, needing a point away to San Marino to be mathematically sure of going direct to the World Cup.

Even if England were to suffer a shock defeat, Poland (20 points) would need a goal-difference swing of six goals from a victory against Hungary to top the group.

But there is still something for Poland to play for, as they may a positive result against Hungary to have a realistic chance of being seeded in the playoffs.

GROUP J
Nov. 14: Armenia vs. Germany, Liechtenstein vs. Romania, North Macedonia vs. Iceland

With Germany already having secured their place, it's now a three-way battle for the playoff spot.

North Macedonia (15 points) have it in their own hands and will definitely be in the playoffs with a win at home to Iceland on Sunday. They will also progress if Romania fail to beat Liechtenstein.

Due to vastly inferior goal difference, Romania (14 points) must beat Liechtenstein and hope North Macedonia lose or draw.

Armenia have a mere mathematical chance, as they would have to beat Germany, hope North Macedonia lose and Romania don't win, while overturning a goal difference deficit of 18.

HOW THE PLAYOFFS WORK

The 10 runners-up from the groups are joined by the best two UEFA Nations League group winners not to have finished in the top two of their qualifying group.

We now know that Austria and whoever misses out on the top two from Group E between Czech Republic and Wales will qualify via the Nations League.

The playoffs, to be played in March 2022, will be seeded by qualifying points, with the two UEFA Nations League teams unseeded. The draw takes place on Friday, Nov. 26.

Seeded teams will be drawn at home against unseeded teams, to play one-legged semifinals.

SEEDED:
UNSEEDED: Austria
POT TBC: Czech Republic, Scotland, Wales

The finals will see the winners of SF1 play SF2, SF3 vs. SF4 and SF5 vs. SF6. There will be a draw to determine the home team in each final path.

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